16 questions you can answer without looking anything up. Make your own estimate first, then open the working to see one way to get there.
A Fermi question asks for a number that sounds impossible to know, like how many golf balls fit in a bus. You break it into smaller numbers you can picture, round them, and multiply. New to this? Read how to estimate anything first.
One or two multiplications each. Good for a first try.
How many breaths do you take in a day?
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At rest, adults breathe about 12 to 20 times a minute. Call it 15.
15 × 60 minutes = 900 breaths an hour.
900 × 24 hours = 21,600.
Answer: About 20,000 breaths a day.
How many hours will you sleep in your lifetime?
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Say 8 hours a night.
8 × 365 is about 3,000 hours a year.
Over 80 years: 3,000 × 80 = 240,000 hours.
Answer: About 240,000 hours, which is roughly 27 years. That is a third of your life.
How many seconds old is a 30-year-old?
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A year has about 30 million seconds. (See the worked example in our estimation guide.)
30 million × 30 = 900 million.
Answer: Nearly a billion seconds. The exact figure, with leap days, is about 947 million.
How tall is a stack of one million sheets of printer paper?
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A pack of 500 sheets is about 5 cm thick.
So one sheet is about 0.1 mm.
1,000,000 × 0.1 mm = 100,000 mm = 100 metres.
Answer: About 100 metres, roughly as tall as a 30-storey building.
How many times do you blink in a day?
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Most people blink about 15 times a minute while awake.
You are awake about 16 hours, which is 960 minutes.
15 × 960 = 14,400.
Answer: About 15,000 blinks a day.
Medium questions
Three or four steps. Watch your units.
How many times will your heart beat in your lifetime?
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A resting heart beats about 70 times a minute.
70 × 60 × 24 is about 100,000 beats a day.
100,000 × 365 is about 37 million a year.
37 million × 80 years is about 3 billion.
Answer: About 3 billion heartbeats.
How much blood does your heart pump in a day?
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Route 1: each beat pushes out about 70 ml. 70 ml × 100,000 beats = 7,000 litres.
Route 2: at rest the heart pumps about 5 litres a minute. 5 × 1,440 minutes = 7,200 litres.
Two different routes give nearly the same answer. That is a good sign.
Answer: About 7,000 litres a day.
How many words do you speak in a day?
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Guess how long you spend talking: maybe 2 hours in total.
People speak about 130 words a minute.
130 × 120 minutes = 15,600.
Answer: About 16,000 words. A 2007 study that recorded people through the day found almost exactly this, for women and men alike.Source: Mehl and others, Science, 2007.
How long would it take to count to one million out loud?
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Most numbers below a million are long, like “four hundred and eighty-seven thousand, two hundred and thirty-one”. Allow about 3 seconds each.
1,000,000 × 3 seconds = 3 million seconds.
A day has about 86,000 seconds, so that is about 35 days without a break.
Counting 8 hours a day, it takes about 100 days.
Answer: About a month non-stop, or three to four months of 8-hour days.
How many steps would it take to walk around the Earth?
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The Earth is about 40,000 km around the equator.
One walking step is about 0.75 m, so 1 km is about 1,300 steps.
40,000 × 1,300 = 52 million steps.
Walking 8 hours a day at 5 km an hour covers 40 km a day, so the trip takes about 1,000 days.
Answer: About 50 million steps, or nearly 3 years of long walking days (if you could walk on water).
How much water will you drink in your lifetime?
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Say 2 litres a day, counting all drinks.
2 × 365 = 730 litres a year.
730 × 80 years is about 58,000 litres.
Answer: About 60,000 litres. Water weighs 1 kg a litre, so that is about 60 tonnes.
Hard questions
The classics. More guesses, so check your answer from a second direction.
How many golf balls fit in a school bus?
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A big school bus is about 10 m long, 2.3 m wide and 1.9 m high inside. That is about 44 cubic metres. Take away the seats: call it 40.
A golf ball is about 4.3 cm across. Treat it as a cube: 4.3 × 4.3 × 4.3 is about 80 cubic centimetres.
40 cubic metres is 40 million cubic centimetres. 40,000,000 ÷ 80 = 500,000.
Balls pack a little better than cubes, so the real number is a bit higher.
Answer: About 500,000 to 700,000 golf balls.
How many piano tuners work in Chicago?
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Chicago has about 2.7 million people. At 2.5 people per home, that is about 1.1 million homes.
Say 1 home in 20 has a piano: about 55,000 pianos.
Each piano is tuned about once a year: 55,000 tunings a year.
A tuner can do about 4 a day for 250 working days: 1,000 a year.
55,000 ÷ 1,000 = 55.
Answer: About 50 to 100 tuners, once you add schools, churches and concert halls. Nobody keeps an exact count, which is what makes this Enrico Fermi’s most famous question.
How many grains of sand fit in a teaspoon?
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A teaspoon holds 5 ml, which is 5,000 cubic millimetres.
A typical sand grain is about 0.5 mm across. As a cube, that is 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125 cubic millimetres.
5,000 ÷ 0.125 = 40,000.
Answer: Tens of thousands: about 40,000 to 50,000 grains of medium sand. Fine sand has many more.
How long would it take to drive to the Moon?
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The Moon is on average about 384,000 km away.
At a steady 100 km an hour: 384,000 ÷ 100 = 3,840 hours.
3,840 ÷ 24 = 160 days.
Answer: About 160 days of non-stop driving, or more than a year of 8-hour days.
How many litres of air do you breathe in a day?
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From the first question: about 20,000 breaths a day.
A calm breath moves about half a litre of air.
20,000 × 0.5 = 10,000 litres.
Answer: About 10,000 litres a day, more when you move.
Tips for better Fermi estimates
Write every assumption down. If the answer is off, you can see which guess caused it.
Round to easy numbers. 24 hours can become 25, as long as you round something else down to balance it.
Check from a second direction. The blood question above gets the same answer two ways. When two routes agree, you can trust the estimate more.
Aim for the right size, not the exact digits. Being within 2 or 3 times the true value is a good result.
Questions about Fermi questions
What is a Fermi question?
A Fermi question asks for a number that seems impossible to know without looking it up. You answer it by breaking it into smaller numbers you can guess, then multiplying. The name comes from the physicist Enrico Fermi, who was famous for quick, close estimates.
Is there one right answer to a Fermi question?
Usually there is a true value, but the aim is to get close, not exact. An estimate within a factor of 2 or 3 is a good result. Two people can reach the same answer by different routes, and comparing routes is half the fun.
How do you use Fermi questions in class?
Give pairs a few minutes and one question. Ask them to write down every assumption before they multiply. Then compare the answers on the board as a range, and talk about which assumptions made the biggest difference.
Try one with an illustrated answer
Want to turn these into a game night or a lesson? See seven estimation games to play with a group. Oddly has two free games: Estimate (type your best guess) and This or That (pick the right one). A new round of each every day, with sourced answers. Play your first round of each game free, no account needed. A free account unlocks every round.